Notwithstanding global headwinds, the Indian economy saw further momentum in October on the back of goods and services tax (GST) rate rationalisation and festival spending, as indicated by high-frequency indicators, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monthly State of the Economy report said.
Stock markets closed higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in bank, IT and capital goods shares.
Overall economic activity continued to hold up in November with demand conditions remaining robust, thanks to strengthening urban demand, but manufacturing and rural demand showed some signs of deceleration even as services remained strong, according to an article on the State of the Economy written by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials in the central bank's December bulletin.
India's retail inflation, which has stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent target in recent times, is likely to remain benign in the coming months, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said in a speech, on Friday, which was uploaded on the central bank's website on Tuesday. Headline inflation dipped to multi-year lows of around 1.5-2.8 per cent in late 2025.
Donald Trump posted a photo on Truth Social listing himself as 'Acting President of Venezuela,' along with his US presidential designations. This follows recent US actions against Venezuela and claims regarding control over Venezuelan oil revenue.
The US said India will lower tariffs on a "vast array" of American industrial and agricultural goods, such as "fruits, vegetables", to zero per cent under the trade deal announced by President Donald Trump.
Government's fuel subsidy estimate was based on crude oil at $70.
Centre and state governments are steadily increasing excise duties and value-added tax
The reference case forecast takes into account the dire state of the world economy and expects global demand to fall by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2009. It also does not foresee any further compliance by OPEC countries with the quota reductions announced last December. Dated Brent was expected to have average $45 per barrel in the first quarter, rising to $50.4 per barrel in the second and $51.8 per barrel in the third, then up to $53.4 per barrel.
US crude was down 25 cents at $52.08.
Budget is widely seen as a test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive because it raises the cost for imports for most of the world's countries
Rising production from OPEC as well as the US also weighing on prices
The country's exports rose marginally by 0.61 per cent to $36.56 billion in January, while trade deficit widened to a three-month high of $34.68 billion, government data showed on Monday.
'Crude oil prices are around $66-67 per barrel now but could fall to $55-60 if global disturbances ease.'
Marico is expected to post high single-digit volume growth in the India business in the July-September quarter. However, it is expected to moderate sequentially, the company said in its quarterly update on exchanges.
Spiralling oil prices will exert huge pressure on India's balance sheet of inflows and outflows of resources resulting in a three-fold increase in the current account deficit to 4.7 per cent of the country's GDP in fiscal ending 2009, a Goldman Sachs report said on Wednesday.
Baghaei also alleged that recent unrest in Iran was fuelled by foreign interference, claiming riots were triggered by "very evident" interventionist remarks by US and Israeli officials.
India imports about 25 million tonnes of oil from Iraq each year.
India has completely protected the interests of its agriculture and dairy sector in the India-US trade agreement.
Stock investors will track the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, Brent crude oil prices, inflation data and the US Fed interest rate decision for further cues this week, analysts said. Tariff-related news would also dictate trends in the equity market, experts noted.
More than half of the total subsidy provisioning, amounting to 54 per cent, is going towards food subsidy, which is estimated at Rs 184,220 crore for 2019-20 - a 7.5 per cent increase over the revised estimates for 2018-19.
The gold and crude oil prices, which have risen to records this year, may ease a little if the US central bank Federal Reserve cut rates at its meeting on Tuesday, an analyst said.The Fed is scheduled to meet today to consider revision of interest rates. The US banking sector regulator has already cut the rate at which it lends to banks by 0.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent at an emergency weekend meeting on Monday.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
Corporate margins and profits in India remain vulnerable to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. Historical quarterly data from listed companies (excluding banks, finance and insurance, oil and gas, and power sectors) indicate an adverse correlation between corporate margins and crude oil prices.
International oil prices continue to be extremely volatile, falling on one day and rising thereafter, a top oil ministry official said explaining the reason behind no reduction in petrol and diesel prices despite softening in input cost, but could not say if the rates will be cut before Maharashtra elections. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell below $70 per barrel last week -- the first time since December 2021 -- but gained thereafter. Brent was trading at $74.58 per barrel on Thursday while West Texas Intermediate advanced to trade at $71.71.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Eternal declined by 4.02 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance (3.88 per cent), Sun Pharma, InterGlobe Aviation, Trent, Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Finserv. HDFC Bank emerged as the only gainer from the pack.
Wholesale price inflation (WPI) stayed in negative territory for the second consecutive month at (-) 0.58 per cent in July, as prices of food articles and fuel saw deflation, even though prices of manufactured items increased, government data showed on Thursday.
The Indian rupee, swaying through multiple headwinds, tiding over global trade disruptions and massive foreign fund outlfows, is unlikely to arrest its descent until tariff impact overhangs, notwithstanding robust domestic macroeconomic tailwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which sees the rupee's depreciation as a silver bullet to offset the tariff shock, expects the currency to find its stable course once India reaches a trade deal with its largest trading partner, the US.
Qatar will lead growth in the region with around 8.7 per cent, while growth will be about six per cent each in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, 4.5 per cent in the United Arab Emirates, 4.2 per cent in Oman and 3.1 per cent in Bahrain, the report by Kuwait-based Gulf Investment Company said.
'Trump had done a deal with the current regime minus Maduro. The current regime is giving Trump entry into Venezuelan oil. They are obeying him and doing whatever he says.' 'They are happy because they have saved their heads by sacrificing only two, Maduro and his wife. Thousands of Venezuelan military leaders would have been jailed or killed in American action had Maduro stayed in power.'
The government is expecting a better soyabean and groundnut production on account of well-distributed monsoon rains and good prices.
The surprise decision of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to cut oil output may cause an immediate rise in prices, delaying revision in fuel prices in India, industry sources said. The grouping of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, on Sunday decided to further cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels. The move led to Brent rising by almost 6 per cent to $84.58 per barrel on Monday.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, spent 112.5 billion euro (about Rs 1.5 lakh crore) on buying crude oil from Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, a European think tank said on Thursday. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) released a report on payments to Russia for fossil fuels since February 24, 2022. "According to our estimates, since the beginning of the war, Russia earned EUR 835 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports," it said.
The best way for India to prepare is by preserving and strengthening the RBI's hard-won credibility, point out Rajeswari Sengupta and Vaishali Garga.
The value of the rupee, which has slipped to the 92 per dollar mark, does not accurately reflect India's stellar economic fundamentals, the Economic Survey said on Thursday.
Trump announced that India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff on Delhi, lowering it from 25 per cent to 18 per cent.
The government is likely to give a subsidy of Rs 30,000-35,000 crore to state-run oil companies - Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) - to compensate for losses incurred from selling LPG at below cost over the past 15 months, according to a senior official.
'America is adopting the typical 'my way or the highway'/'Either you are with us or against us' stance.' 'This is a policy India is not going to accept.'
Driven by GST reforms, robust festive demand, and softening raw material prices, the FMCG industry expects volume-based growth, supported by a mid-single digit revenue rise and improved operating margins in the December quarter.
